Skip to content

2016 President · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 955 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 35.8%

D+10.8

The certified result

Democrat 54.57% · Republican 40.93%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 35.8 = 10.80
  2. Actual margin = 54.566 − 40.927 = 13.639
  3. Signed miss = 10.80 − (13.639) = -2.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.839| = 2.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48725, race ID 608 (538 database).