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2016 President · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,556 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.1% · Republican 36.9%

D+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.1 − 36.9 = 5.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 5.20 − (4.906) = 0.294
  4. Absolute miss = |0.294| = 0.294

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48724, race ID 607 (538 database).