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2016 President · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,567 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.8% · Republican 46.3%

R+8.5

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.8 − 46.3 = -8.50
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -8.50 − (-3.545) = -4.954
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.954| = 4.954

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48721, race ID 605 (538 database).