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2016 Senate · UT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 762 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 69%

R+46.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.06% · Republican 68.15%

R+41.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 69 = -46.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.058 − 68.146 = -41.088
  3. Signed miss = -46.00 − (-41.088) = -4.912
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.912| = 4.912

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48684, race ID 73 (538 database).