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2016 President · UT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 762 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 40%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 40 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-18.078) = 1.078
  4. Absolute miss = |1.078| = 1.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48684, race ID 646 (538 database).