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2016 Senate · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 48.8%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 48.8 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (0.137) = -3.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.338| = 3.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48519, race ID 85 (538 database).