Skip to content

2016 President · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.4% · Republican 43.8%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.4 − 43.8 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (0.367) = 1.232
  4. Absolute miss = |1.232| = 1.232

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48519, race ID 632 (538 database).