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2016 Senate · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 44.8%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 46.39% · Republican 49.18%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 44.8 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 46.392 − 49.184 = -2.792
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (-2.792) = 3.492
  4. Absolute miss = |3.492| = 3.492

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48518, race ID 70 (538 database).