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2016 President · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 45.6%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 45.6 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (2.417) = -1.217
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.217| = 1.217

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48517, race ID 635 (538 database).