Skip to content

2016 Senate · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28.3% · Republican 48.8%

R+20.5

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28.3 − 48.8 = -20.50
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -20.50 − (-20.871) = 0.371
  4. Absolute miss = |0.371| = 0.371

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48516, race ID 67 (538 database).