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2016 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 221 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 32%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 32 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.748 − 45.313 = 4.435
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (4.435) = 18.565
  4. Absolute miss = |18.565| = 18.565

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48503, race ID 6012 (538 database).