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2016 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 219 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 33%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.29% · Republican 42.95%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 33 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.286 − 42.946 = 1.340
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.340) = 5.660
  4. Absolute miss = |5.660| = 5.660

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48503, race ID 6011 (538 database).