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2016 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 455 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 38%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 38 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (-2.269) = 10.270
  4. Absolute miss = |10.270| = 10.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48503, race ID 54 (538 database).