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2016 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 237 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 33%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 33 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.748 − 45.313 = 4.435
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (4.435) = 10.565
  4. Absolute miss = |10.565| = 10.565

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48499, race ID 6012 (538 database).