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2016 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 692 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.137) = 3.862
  4. Absolute miss = |3.862| = 3.862

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48497, race ID 85 (538 database).