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2016 President · VA

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 3,076 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.321) = -3.321
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.321| = 3.321

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48494, race ID 647 (538 database).