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2016 President · NV

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,793 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (2.417) = -3.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.417| = 3.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48490, race ID 635 (538 database).