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2016 President · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,188 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.199) = 1.199
  4. Absolute miss = |1.199| = 1.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48482, race ID 611 (538 database).