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2016 President · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,189 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.130) = 7.130
  4. Absolute miss = |7.130| = 7.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48481, race ID 637 (538 database).