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2016 President · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 34%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 34 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (23.993) = -6.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.994| = 6.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48478, race ID 636 (538 database).