2016 Senate · NY
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 67% · Republican 25%
D+42.0
The certified result
Democrat 65.62% · Republican 23.64%
D+42.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 67 − 25 = 42.00
- Actual margin = 65.618 − 23.644 = 41.974
- Signed miss = 42.00 − (41.974) = 0.027
- Absolute miss = |0.027| = 0.027
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48478, race ID 61 (538 database).