2016 Senate · PA
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 43%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 48.77%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.341 − 48.774 = -1.433
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.433) = 0.432
- Absolute miss = |0.432| = 0.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48469, race ID 86 (538 database).