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2016 Senate · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 667 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.01% · Republican 40.99%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.013 − 40.987 = 18.026
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (18.026) = -6.026
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.026| = 6.026

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48365, race ID 72 (538 database).