Skip to content

2016 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 667 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.39% · Republican 45.61%

D+8.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.390 − 45.610 = 8.780
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (8.780) = -1.779
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.779| = 1.779

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48365, race ID 58 (538 database).