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2016 President · VA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,238 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.321) = -0.321
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.321| = 0.321

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48349, race ID 647 (538 database).