Skip to content

2016 President · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.906) = 0.094
  4. Absolute miss = |0.094| = 0.094

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48347, race ID 607 (538 database).