Skip to content

2016 President · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 38%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 38 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.223) = 4.223
  4. Absolute miss = |4.223| = 4.223

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48335, race ID 624 (538 database).