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2016 Senate · IA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 60%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.66% · Republican 60.09%

R+24.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 60 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.655 − 60.090 = -24.435
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-24.435) = -3.565
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.565| = 3.565

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48331, race ID 92 (538 database).