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2016 President · IA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.3% · Republican 44%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 41.75% · Republican 51.16%

R+9.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.3 − 44 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 41.753 − 51.162 = -9.409
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (-9.409) = 6.710
  4. Absolute miss = |6.710| = 6.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48331, race ID 614 (538 database).