Skip to content

2016 President · WI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 891 respondents · IVR/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.764) = 7.764
  4. Absolute miss = |7.764| = 7.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48330, race ID 650 (538 database).