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2016 Governor · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 781 respondents · IVR/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-2.269) = 5.270
  4. Absolute miss = |5.270| = 5.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48327, race ID 54 (538 database).