Skip to content

2016 President · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.367) = -0.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.368| = 0.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48263, race ID 632 (538 database).