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2016 President · GA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 707 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.131) = 4.131
  4. Absolute miss = |4.131| = 4.131

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48209, race ID 612 (538 database).