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2016 President · UT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 19.6% · Republican 39.8%

R+20.2

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 19.6 − 39.8 = -20.20
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -20.20 − (-18.078) = -2.122
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.122| = 2.122

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48196, race ID 646 (538 database).