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2016 President · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34.5% · Republican 49.2%

R+14.7

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.5 − 49.2 = -14.70
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -14.70 − (-9.000) = -5.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.701| = 5.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48195, race ID 645 (538 database).