Skip to content

2016 President · UT

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 37%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 37 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-18.078) = 12.078
  4. Absolute miss = |12.078| = 12.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48191, race ID 646 (538 database).