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2016 Governor · UT

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 63%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.74% · Republican 66.74%

R+38.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 63 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.741 − 66.740 = -37.999
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-37.999) = 4.999
  4. Absolute miss = |4.999| = 4.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48191, race ID 56 (538 database).