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2016 Senate · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,722 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.39% · Republican 49.18%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.392 − 49.184 = -2.792
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.792) = -1.208
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.208| = 1.208

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48186, race ID 70 (538 database).