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2016 Governor · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,722 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.567) = 4.567
  4. Absolute miss = |4.567| = 4.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48186, race ID 50 (538 database).