Skip to content

2016 Senate · NH

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (0.137) = -6.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.138| = 6.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48128, race ID 85 (538 database).