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2016 President · NH

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 40%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 40 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.367) = -1.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.368| = 1.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48128, race ID 632 (538 database).