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2016 Governor · NH

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.269) = -2.730
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.730| = 2.730

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48128, race ID 54 (538 database).