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2016 President · LA

Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 43%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.45% · Republican 58.09%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 43 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.450 − 58.089 = -19.639
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-19.639) = 16.639
  4. Absolute miss = |16.639| = 16.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48124, race ID 620 (538 database).