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2016 Senate · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 40%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.665) = 2.335
  4. Absolute miss = |2.335| = 2.335

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48123, race ID 74 (538 database).