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2016 President · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 39%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 39 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.906) = -4.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.906| = 4.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48123, race ID 607 (538 database).