Skip to content

2016 President · CO

Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 37%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 37 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.906) = 2.094
  4. Absolute miss = |2.094| = 2.094

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48103, race ID 607 (538 database).