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2016 President · AZ

Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,113 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 42%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 42 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.545) = 2.546
  4. Absolute miss = |2.546| = 2.546

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48102, race ID 605 (538 database).