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2016 Senate · OH

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 589 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 56%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-20.871) = 2.871
  4. Absolute miss = |2.871| = 2.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48100, race ID 67 (538 database).