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2016 Senate · NV

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.429) = -0.429
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.429| = 0.429

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48096, race ID 63 (538 database).