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2016 Senate · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 650 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.39% · Republican 49.18%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.392 − 49.184 = -2.792
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.792) = 2.792
  4. Absolute miss = |2.792| = 2.792

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48081, race ID 70 (538 database).